Indian Pakistan conflict: 4 key questions as world awaits 'significant' response

Two nuclear powers are on the brink of new war after was hit by air in the fraught Kashmir region. Tensions between the neighbouring nations have hit a new high after Delhi said it targeted nine sites in the Pakistan-administered area.

The landed at 1.05am local time on Wednesday morning (19.35pm on Tuesday UK time) and lasted just 25 minutes, but it was enough to spark fear of an all-out war. Pakistan said 31 people were killed and 57 injured, and vowed to . The country's defence minister warned the global community not to "underestimate" their response.

Pakistan quickly responded as Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said his forces had hit back by shooting down multiple fighter jets from India early on Wednesday morning. Despite this, the worst could be yet to come as defence minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif told The Times: "Do not underestimate Pakistan’s response; it will be more significant than their actions."

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This region has long been the site of fierce tensions and fighting after British rule of the area ended in 1947 and the hurriedly drawn borders, based on religion, set the ethnically and religiously diverse Kashmir region up for decades of sectarian violence and bloodshed.

India's army has since said cross-border shelling continued as it responds to "unprovoked firing" from Pakistan's side. India claimed 15 people, including one army personnel, were killed by Pakistani shelling. These simmering tensions have turned particularly violent along the Line of Control (LoC) - the de facto border that divides Kashmir between India and Pakistan.

The two nuclear nations are teetering on the line of a terrifying war, and there are four key questions to consider as the awaits Pakistan's "significant" response.

Were these strikes a new escalation in this conflict?

This has not been the first time tensions in Kashmir have become violent along the dividing line. India launched strikes over the LoC in 2016 after 16 Indian soldiers were killed on an army base in Uri.

A 2019 bombing in Pulwama killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel and prompted airstrikes past the border region and deep into Kashmir, which was the first time since 1971 that air action to that level had been ignited. India said it hit nine militant targets, including a militant separatist group's headquarters 100 kilometres into Pakistan.

A key difference between previous strikes and this week's attack was that this time India went past the LoC and past the international border. Ajay Bisaria, a former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan, told the : "These strikes were more precise, targeted and more visible than in the past. Therefore, [they are] less deniable by Pakistan."

Will these strikes spiral into war?

Pakistan said it will retaliate and most experts believe a counterattack is inevitable. The Foreign Office has issued a travel warning for Brits to not travel within 10 kilometres of the India-Pakistan border following the quick escalation in violence, suggesting the fighting is not done.

Bisaria told the BBC that diplomacy could be the key to stop this spiralling into a deadly war, saying: "Pakistan will be getting advice to exercise restraint. But the key will be the diplomacy after the Pakistani response to ensure that both countries don't rapidly climb the ladder of escalation."

Is retaliation from Pakistan inevitable?

Despite decades of violence and fierce tensions, Pakistan's response to this drastic attack is difficult to predict. Pakistan's defence minister warned that Indian strikes were an "invitation to expand the conflict" but importantly added Islamabad was "trying to avoid" an all-out war.

Asif even warned this could turn nuclear if escalation continues, while talking to Pakistani TV channel Geo News: "If they [India] impose an all-out war on the region and if such dangers arise in which there is a stand-off, then at any time a nuclear war can break out. If they aggravate this then if a chance of war arises in which there is a sign of nuclear option being used on both sides, then the responsibility for that will be on India."

An Islamabad-based analyst, Umer Farooq, told the BBC that years of political unrest in Pakistan could have affected how the public would view a war against its neighbour, saying: "Today, the Pakistani public is far less eager to support the military compared to 2016 or 2019 - the usual wave of war hysteria is noticeably absent. But if public opinion shifts in central Punjab where anti-India feelings are more prevalent, we could see increased civilian pressure on the military to take action."

Can tensions between India and Pakistan cool off?

The infamously tense neighbours have tip-toed the line between peace and war for decades but can these strikes be different? After the 2019 Pulwama bombing India responded through political rather than violent means - imposing heavy tariffs and suspending transport and crucial trade links.

Diplomacy previously led to a de-escalation while the world feared the bombings and retaliatory strikes would be the precursor to war. By the end of the talks, Pakistan had even released a captured Indian pilot behind some of the air raids.