Why this Pacific nation is planning its own evacuation to Australia

Tuvalu’s future is disappearing into the ocean. This Pacific nation of nine coral atolls and just over 11,000 people sits, on average, two metres above sea level. For years, scientists have warned that rising oceans will eventually swallow large parts of it. Now, that threat is no longer theoretical.

Two of its islands have already been mostly claimed by the waves. According to NASA’s Sea Level Change Team, water levels around Tuvalu rose 15 centimetres between 1993 and 2023. If that pace holds, much of its land and infrastructure could be gone by 2050. In the worst-case scenario, double that rise would leave 90% of the main island of Funafuti under water.

By 2050, daily tides could submerge half of Funafuti, where 60% of Tuvaluans live, forcing residents to cling to a strip of land sometimes only 20 metres wide.

The Falepili Union: A lifeline and a strategy
In 2023, Tuvalu and Australia signed the Falepili Union treaty, the first deal of its kind in the world. It offers 280 Tuvalu citizens each year the chance to settle permanently in Australia, with full access to housing, healthcare, education and jobs.

"Australia recognises the devastating impact climate change is having on the livelihoods, security, and wellbeing of climate vulnerable countries and people, particularly in the Pacific region," Australia’s foreign affairs department said last month.

The treaty also commits Australia to defend Tuvalu against natural disasters, health emergencies and “military aggression.” In return, Australia will have a say in any defence agreements Tuvalu signs with other nations — a move analysts see as both humanitarian and strategic, especially in a region where China’s influence is growing.

A Nation applies to leave
Applications for the first round opened on 16 June and closed on 18 July this year. Interest was overwhelming. The Australian High Commission in Tuvalu said, “We received extremely high levels of interest in the ballot with 8,750 registrations, which includes family members of primary registrants.”

That figure represents around 82% of Tuvalu’s population, based on the 2022 census. The first 280 names will be drawn at random on 25 July.

Tuvalu’s ambassador to the UN, Tapugao Falefou, told Reuters he was “startled by the huge number of people vying for this opportunity” and said many were curious about who the first migrants would be. He added, “Moving to Australia under the Falepili Union treaty will in some way provide additional remittance to families staying back.”

Any citizen over 18, including Tuvaluans already living abroad, can enter the draw by paying a fee of 25 Australian dollars (£13). The cap of 280 visas per year is meant to avoid a rapid loss of the country’s workforce.

Leaders call for global action
Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong described the programme as giving Tuvaluans a chance to relocate “with dignity as climate impacts worsen.” Tuvalu’s Prime Minister Feleti Teo has urged world leaders to create a new international treaty to protect the rights of nations facing sea level rise.

Experts say that, if combined with other migration options to Australia and New Zealand, as much as 4% of Tuvalu’s population could move abroad each year. “Within a decade, close to 40 percent of the population could have moved, although some may return home or go backwards and forwards,” said Jane McAdam from UNSW Sydney’s Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law.

Despite the migration plan, Tuvalu is not giving up on its land. The country has built 17 acres of artificial ground and plans more, hoping these will remain above the tides until 2100. But the tide is unrelenting, and for many, leaving may now be the only way to survive.

For Tuvalu, the coming decades will be a balancing act between holding onto its identity and homeland, and ensuring its people have a future somewhere safer, even if that future lies hundreds of miles away on Australian shores.